Fire red buy ultraball5/30/2023 (these aren't real math proofs, I just tried and failed to write an explanation that makes sense) I'll use n = ceiling(log(1 - p, 3/10)) because you can't flip a fraction of a coin or throw a fraction of a great ball. ![]() This is the chance of getting at least one heads. There's a (1 - p)^n chance of getting n tails in a row, and a 1 - (1 - p)^n chance of getting at least one heads. If the chance of heads is p (which can be 1/2 or something else), the chance of tails is 1 - p. N = log(1/2, 3/10) coins, which is close to 1.7 and rounds up to 2 coins because you can't flip 0.7 coins. Let's say you want at least a 70% chance of getting at least one heads. With n flips, there's a (1/2)^n chance of getting n tails in a row, and a 1 - (1/2)^n chance of getting at least one heads. With 3 flips, it's TTT, TTH, THT, THH, HTT, HTH, HHT, and HHH, with a 1/8 chance of 3 tails in a row and 7/8 chance of getting at least one heads. So there's a 1/4 chance of getting 2 tails in a row and a 3/4 chance of getting at least one heads. When you flip it twice, the possible results are TT, TH, HT, and HH. When you flip a coin once, you have a 1/2 chance of heads and a 1/2 chance of tails. The calculator unfortunately doesn't tell me how many you need for 70% catch chance, so I decided to figure it out. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 2 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 8 balls. You have a 33.695% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 3 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 12 balls. You have a 23.416% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 4 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 14 balls. You have a 19.752% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 5 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 20 balls. ![]() You have a 14.34% chance of capturing it per ball. Thus, you have at least a 50% chance of catching it within 7 balls and at least a 95% chance of catching it within 27 balls. You have a 10.661% chance of capturing it per ball.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |